SWODY2
SPC AC 091730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND ERN CANADA....A SMALLER-SCALE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS SHOULD BE A PRIMARY
FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AS THIS FEATURE -- AND THE ENHANCED WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT --
MOVES INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS...A BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK AND VICINITY...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ENHANCED/LOCALLY-VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM N TX NWD SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND
THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL HAIL.
FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL TX...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED OR
NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED. HERE...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A TORNADO
OR TWO IN ADDITION THE HAIL POTENTIAL.
THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS TX WHERE
SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER.
..GOSS.. 11/09/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment