Saturday, November 1, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011623
SWODY1
SPC AC 011619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL

CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CA CST THIS EVENING AND
MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH TROUGH MOVING OVER
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND
FOSTER INCREASED TSTM POTENTIAL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SAME TIME...TERRAIN-INDUCED NEAR-SFC SLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO
ENHANCE LOW-LVL SHEAR.

A PLUME OF HIGHER PW AIR AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NRN COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA HAS RESULTED IN BANDS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH 40-50 KT OF SHEAR...LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF LINE SEGMENTS THIS AM
PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

..HALES/BRIGHT.. 11/01/2008

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