SWODY2
SPC AC 011730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. WELL-REMOVED FROM THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM...A CLOSED/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMA CROSSES THE REGION
SUNDAY...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIURNAL
UPSWING IN TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT/EASTERN ID/WESTERN
CO...COINCIDENT WITH AN EAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
TSTMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...SOME OF THE STRONGER LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF WEAK BUOYANCY OVERALL /UP TO 500 J PER KG SBCAPE/...THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/AMPLE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO
SEMI-ORGANIZED/LINEAR-TYPE TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES/SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS.
...FL...
UPSTREAM CLOSED/COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE VICINITY ON SUNDAY. IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER AND A FAIRLY
COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE AMIDST PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 11/01/2008
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