SWODY2
SPC AC 130700
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST THU NOV 13 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION FRIDAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PROBABLY CLOSE
OFF OVER THE NWRN GULF EARLY FRIDAY. CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS INTO THE NERN GULF AND BECOME ABSORBED
BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THIS IMPULSE MAY REACH SRN GA AND
THE ERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL U.S. IN WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE TO THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVANCE INLAND AND
EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL GULF NEWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE ERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. MOIST AXIS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR. INLAND
EXTENT OF THE RICHER MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED BY A RESIDUAL
WEDGE OF COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...LIKELY ENHANCED BY AREAS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FROM PARTS OF GA NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
MODEST WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. THERMAL
RIDGE ALOFT MAY EXIST OVER CAROLINAS WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEPER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM IMPULSE ARRIVES. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SERVE AS A POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...HODOGRAPHS ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND STRONG BULK
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN WARM SECTOR.
GIVEN CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THREAT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY
BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 11/13/2008
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