SWODY3
SPC AC 130752
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST THU NOV 13 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITHIN CYCLONIC
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC AND REMAINDER OF THE ERN CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FL SATURDAY NIGHT.
...ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SE VA...
A STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WARM SECTOR
EARLY SATURDAY WILL SHIFT NE DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT ADVANCES EAST. STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW AND BULK SHEAR IN WARM
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE EJECTING AND DEAMPLIFYING SRN STREAM
IMPULSE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WILL MAINTAIN
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK AREA IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 11/13/2008
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