SWODY2
SPC AC 270654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A RIDGE EXPANDING ENEWD ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE W COAST REGION. THOUGH MODELS REMAIN
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...DIFFERENCES
IN SMALL-SCALE DETAILS BEGIN TO EMERGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
ONE OF THESE EMERGING DIFFERENCES -- REGARDING SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- MAY AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER
INVOF THE GULF COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WWD INTO SOUTHEAST
TX...THE GFS FORECASTS CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER MS LATE
AS IT BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE NAM IN TERMS OF THE SMALLER-SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
IN ANY CASE...THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- AND A
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS -- LIKELY ONGOING INVOF THE
SURFACE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITHIN MOIST/MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THE GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HINDER OVERALL
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS
THIS REGION WOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN
ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL HAIL...OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR --
PARTICULARLY IF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE.
GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- AND THUS A QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
WLY WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT -- SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER APPRECIABLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL. SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT COULD HOWEVER EVOLVE
ACROSS MS LATE...IF THE CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED BY THE GFS INDEED
OCCURS. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY SEE TEXT/LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY.
..GOSS.. 11/27/2008
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