SWODY3
SPC AC 270742
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
U.S. AND CANADA CONTINUE THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE
NAM/ECMWF/GFS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE SMALLER/EMBEDDED FEATURES
WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. ALL MODELS HOWEVER HOLD THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ROUGHLY STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS...AND
LIKEWISE MAINTAIN AN ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
WRN GULF/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW FIELD
WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITHIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INVOF
THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT. WITH TORNADO THREAT LIKELY TO REMAIN
LOW DUE TO VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD...AND WITH INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES LIKELY UNSUPPORTIVE OF AN APPRECIABLE HAIL THREAT...MAIN
THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE AN ISOLATED/DAMAGING GUST OR TWO. GIVEN THE
FAIRLY STRONG WIND FIELD ANTICIPATED...THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW
STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS COULD RESULT IN A WIND THREAT GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ATTM HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY...WITH THE APPARENT LACK OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR.
..GOSS.. 11/27/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment