Saturday, December 6, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060514
SWODY1
SPC AC 060511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST FRI DEC 05 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN FL THROUGH SE GA...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE THROUGH BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IMPULSE WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH NRN FL AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE WRN ATLANTIC
FRIDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NRN FL. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOW VERY MARGINAL CAPE CONFINED TO
LAYERS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN -20C...SUGGESTING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW INLAND.

DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL ZONE OF ASCENT BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
OFFSHORE.

...GREAT LAKES AREA...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD UPPER TROUGHS ALONG WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 12/06/2008

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