SWODY2
SPC AC 060514
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST FRI DEC 05 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY...AS THE MAIN
EMBEDDED IMPULSE LIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
UPPER RIDGE...A COUPLE OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST
TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT ONE OF THESE IMPULSES WILL DIG ACROSS THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE THE OTHER SHIFTS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION.
...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS
CONCERNING THE STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH UNCERTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
APPEAR TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.
...PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A -30C 500 MB COLD CORE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION SUNDAY. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE WEAK/BRIEF AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE PUGET
SOUND/NORTHERN CASCADES VICINITY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES/OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE...AS STRONGER
MID/UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE...AND LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE...POINT PROBABILITIES SEEM TOO LOW TO
OUTLOOK A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST...
AN INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY
COMMENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... DESTABILIZATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MONDAY.
..KERR.. 12/06/2008
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