SWODY1
SPC AC 020537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST THU JAN 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND SE TX THROUGH SW LA...
A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES WILL PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE BAJA AREA TO EJECT
EAST THROUGH NRN MEXICO FRIDAY...REACHING CNTRL AND SRN TX LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE AND CONTRIBUTE
TO NWD ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE WRN GULF. MID
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF S THROUGH S
CNTRL AND SE TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEPER 7-7.5 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING OVER THE MOIST AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT. TIME OF DAY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MUCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ATTENDING THE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OVER S TX
AND EXPANDING NE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NORTH OF INSTABILITY
AXIS AND SE OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
EAST OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY BRANCH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET MAY FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
WITH ATTENDANT INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE AND SFC-1 KM HELICITY FROM
200-250 M2/S2 FORECAST. BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO A STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THIS COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVE HODOGRAPH SIZE.
NEVERTHELESS...BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40+ KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 01/02/2009
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