SWODY1
SPC AC 221238
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SWRN U.S...
SHEARED UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA/NRN
BAJA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL MOISTENING AOA 850MB /AS
EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDING AT NKX THIS MORNING/ WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
BUOYANCY FOR DEEPENING MOIST CONVECTION AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACH 6.5 C/KM. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR CLOUD DEPTHS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES. AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BECOME HOSTILE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.
DOWNSTREAM...MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DESERT SW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND
SHALLOW CONVECTION...MOST OF WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
..EVANS/DARROW.. 01/22/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment