SWOD48
SPC AC 220933
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST THU JAN 22 2009
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST TO BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. PHASING BLEND OF SHORTWAVES OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM ORIGIN IS FCST BY MOST OPERATIONAL AND SREF PACKAGES TO
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF PRONOUNCED CLOSED CYCLONE OVER COASTAL
NRN/CENTRAL CA DURING DAYS 4-5/25TH-27TH TIME FRAME. SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND MOST SREF
MEMBERS TO EJECT EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS DURING
ENSUING 3-4 DAYS...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING AND IN
CLOSED-VS-OPEN NATURE OF RESULTANT TROUGH...AND EVEN GREATER
DIFFERENCES IN ITS IMPACT UPON LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS AND
THERMODYNAMIC RESPONSE E OF ROCKIES. DAY 6-8 SVR
POTENTIAL...THEREFORE..IS TOO CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN FOR OUTLOOK
ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 01/22/2009
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