SWODY1
SPC AC 040544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CA
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS REGIME...AN UPPER LOW/MULTIPLE
LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. MEANWHILE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT
TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE
NORTHERN CA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TSTM
POTENTIAL FROM PORTIONS OF CA/SOUTHERN ORE TO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING AND COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE.
...NORTH CENTRAL CA...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3
KM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CA.
COMBINED WITH A POST-FRONTAL TREND OF A COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY...ANY LOW-TOPPED
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER MARGINAL/HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
TODAY. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
CA COAST INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEY...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED.
...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT DIVIDE...
RELATIVELY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AIDED BY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/AN APPROACHING COLD UPPER
LOW AND AN EASTWARD TRANSITIONING UPPER JET EXIT REGION. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MODEST
HEATING SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN ID INTO
SOUTHERN MT/WESTERN WY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.
..GUYER/JEWELL.. 03/04/2009
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