SWODY1
SPC AC 191627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2009
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OK...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SMALL
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL OK...AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CORES...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
...TX...
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG/BEHIND FRONT INTO PARTS OF TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO OK...STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY CONTAIN HAIL. BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE...LIKELY PRECLUDING A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
...FL...
COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS FL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
A THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PENINSULA.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
DEEPEN A MID LEVEL INVERSION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL OVER THE WESTERN PENINSULA TODAY.
...VA/CAROLINAS...
FINALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST
VA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGEST CELLS...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 03/19/2009
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