Thursday, March 19, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0231

ACUS11 KWNS 191648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191648
OKZ000-191815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191648Z - 191815Z

ISOLD STG TSTMS WITH HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL OK.

POSITIVE-TILT MID-LVL WAVE WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS STATES AT MIDDAY. THIS HAS
MAINTAINED A WSWLY H85-H7 FLOW REGIME...ENHANCING LOW/MID-LVL WARM
ADVECTION INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS OK. FLOW
TRAJECTORY WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE NEAR 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...MAINTAINING 500-750 J PER KG MUCAPE.

GENERATION ZONE FOR TSTMS JUST SW OF KOKC WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY
SEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS PROPAGATING
QUICKLY SEWD INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL OK. INITIAL CELLS WILL CONTAIN THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...PRIMARILY IN A 30 MILE
CORRIDOR FROM KOKC TO KADM.

AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SEWD...THE SMALL MCS
DURING THE AFTN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ESEWD INTO THE RED
RVR AND NERN TX.

..RACY.. 03/19/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35109789 35019685 34479589 34239552 33969604 34019674
34239740 34539787 35109789

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