SWODY2
SPC AC 191711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2009
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WILL AMPLIFY EWD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL DRIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME SELY IN THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP REINFORCE A LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY NIGHT IN CNTRL KS
SHOW MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO
WARRANT A 5 PERCENT HAIL CONTOUR ATTM.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE ROCKIES AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA AS SFC TEMPS WARM FRIDAY. NONE OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
..BROYLES.. 03/19/2009
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