SWODY1
SPC AC 191940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2009
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. THE RUC GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE
CLUSTER IN SE OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT INITIATES ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SOUTHWEST OF THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE
IN THIS AREA...THE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE SFC-BASED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING SHOW ENOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR IN NCNTRL TX ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN WCNTRL TX...INSTABILITY IS A BIT STRONGER.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FOR THIS REASON WILL NOT ADD LOW-END HAIL
PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHWEST TX.
..BROYLES.. 03/19/2009
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