SWODY1
SPC AC 141248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST TODAY...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR MCB THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MS/NW AL TODAY AND MIDDLE TN BY TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD FROM NE TX/SE
OK. A MOIST MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SRN AL DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD. THOUGH THE WARM SECTOR MOISTURE WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE STORM THREAT...POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT. AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM EXTREME
SE LA ENEWD INTO SRN AL TODAY...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
...AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON...
THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER AZ/NM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NRN GREAT
BASIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
COULD AGAIN SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
AZ/NM.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/14/2009
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