SWODY1
SPC AC 201611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE PLNS/LWR MS
VLY THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BY
END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
INTO TX SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS SFC RIDGE NOSES SW FROM THE TN VLY.
WRN PART OF BOUNDARY WILL REFORM NWD AS WARM FRONT THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY...
SATELLITE-DERIVED AND GPS PW DATA SHOW AXIS OF MODEST MOISTURE /WITH
VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCHES/ EXTENDING FROM FAR W TX INTO SW KS.
INTENSIFICATION OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY.
DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLD OR WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS NEWD INTO
SW KS. LOW LEVEL WAA MAY MAINTAIN STORM POTENTIAL OVER PARTS
CNTRL/SRN NM AND FAR W TX AFTER SUNSET.
...CNTRL PLNS TONIGHT...
SWLY LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH NWD REDEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE...ASSOCIATED WAA SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD TO
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN KS AS PW SLOWLY INCREASES TO
AROUND 1 INCH. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK /25 KT/ WNWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
IN SHORT WAVE RIDGE...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT INCLUSION SVR PROBABILITIES EVEN THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 03/20/2009
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