SWODY2
SPC AC 201716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WEST TX/FAR ERN NM/OK PANHANDLE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY. BENEATH THE RIDGE...SLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TONIGHT SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
50S F BY LATE IN THE DAY IN PARTS OF WEST TX NWD INTO WRN KS WHERE
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SBCAPE VALUES AR0UND 1000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO WEST TX SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NE CO SWD AS FAR AS LUBBOCK. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST TX AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.
NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z TO 23Z
SATURDAY SHOW THE GREATEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN ERN NM AND IN WEST TX
NEAR THE NM STATE-LINE. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE STEEP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EWD ACROSS NW TX WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER. ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND IF WEAKER SHEAR IS
REALIZED...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE LESSENED
SUGGESTING A 5 PERCENT CONTOUR IS APPROPRIATE ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 03/20/2009
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