SWODY3
SPC AC 090726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT THU APR 09 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPR TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/HI PLNS AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TAIL-END
OF THE FRONT THAT SETTLES SWD BEHIND THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL RETURN NWD
AS A WRMFNT...LIKELY INTO WCNTRL/NW TX SEWD TO THE UPR TX CST BY 12Z
SUNDAY. A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS
WCNTRL TX/EXTREME SERN NM AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS.
...WCNTRL/CNTRL TX...
GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD
UPR SYSTEM. AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLNS
SATURDAY...THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL ADVECT NWWD INTO CNTRL/WCNTRL TX.
DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEMPER SFC DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG WWD EXTENT WHERE MID-50S DEW POINTS WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS WCNTRL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. IMPROVEMENT IN THE
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX
AS 60-65F DEW POINTS ADVECT NWWD.
AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FIELD EDGES EWD TO THE MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SATURDAY EVENING...WDLY SCTD HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM INVOF THE DRYLINE OVER EXTREME SERN NM/WCNTRL TX. THOUGH
LOW/MID-LVL WIND FIELDS WILL BACK TO SLY WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ENE THROUGH NW TX
AND INTO OK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS/LINES AT
THE NOSE OF A STOUT LLJ. ISOLD HAIL WILL BE PSBL WITH THESE STORMS.
MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS /POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING FROM THE EVENING
ACTIVITY/ WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
OVER THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH ACCELERATING EWD INTO THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AXIS.
THESE STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEPARATE ORGANIZED MCS THAT
MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY/NRN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
..RACY.. 04/09/2009
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