SWOD48
SPC AC 090843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT THU APR 09 2009
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND
BEYOND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPR TROUGHS.
00Z ECMWF IS STILL PREFERRED WITH A WEAKER AND MORE NRN
SOLUTION...TAKING THE SFC LOW NEWD FROM SERN OK INTO MO ON SUNDAY.
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE TX GULF CST AND INTO THE
LWR MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. RICHEST MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND/OR THE UPR CST OF TX
EARLY SUNDAY AND THE SABINE VLY-CNTRL/SRN LA/SRN MS LATER SUNDAY.
MCS THAT GENERATES ACROSS CNTRL TX SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY THRIVE
WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...FOLLOWING THE MARINE FRONT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SABINE RVR VLY AND PSBLY AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. HIGH WINDS...HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PROGRESS NEWD TOWARD THE
MID-SOUTH WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY A LESSER THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE TREND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WCOAST AND DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLATEAU/PLNS AS
CLOSED LOWS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...MODELS PORTRAY A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF LOW PREDICTABILITY AT DAYS 5-8.
..RACY.. 04/09/2009
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