SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091747
OKZ000-092015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091747Z - 092015Z
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER E CNTRL OK BY 20-21Z.
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19-20Z.
THIS AFTERNOON A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN SW KS SEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND W
CNTRL TX. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION IS ADVANCING RAPIDLY EAST...ALLOWING FOR A CORRIDOR OF
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DIABATIC HEATING FROM N CNTRL TX THROUGH E
CNTRL OK. AXIS OF MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS IS ADVECTING RAPIDLY NWD
THROUGH ERN OK BENEATH VERY STEEP 8+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL CAPPED DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE WARM
EML. HOWEVER...AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION
OF APPROACHING UPPER JET BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE CONVERGENCE AXIS
ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CAPPING LAYER WILL LIKELY MOISTEN AND COOL
SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 20-21Z. COUPLED LOW-MID
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 04/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36709592 36429521 35659481 34859503 34089582 34199705
35289700 36279730 36679678 36709592
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