SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091757
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN KS / NRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091757Z - 091900Z
SURFACE-BASED INITIATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE 1930-2100Z PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN KS AND EXTREME NRN OK. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ONCE STORMS ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO
MOISTURE AXIS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF IMPLIED ASCENT PUSHING EWD
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AS CU FIELD DEVELOPS OVER NWRN OK WITHIN
POST-DRYLINE THERMAL AXIS. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MASS/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE OK/KS BORDER IS OCCURRING ALONG SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT/BULGING DRYLINE AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE SITUATED OVER SWRN KS. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE UNCAPPED SURFACE-BASED PARCELS AS EARLY AS 19-20Z. AS ZONE
OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREAD HIGHLIGHTED REGION
CONCURRENT WITH FURTHER DIABATIC HEATING--WILL RESULT IN STORMS
LIKELY INITIATING NEAR ABOVE DESCRIBED INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...NNE-NELY STORM MOTIONS WILL ENABLE STORMS TO
CROSS INTO WELL DEFINED THETA-E AXIS ACROSS NRN OK EXTENDING NWWD
INTO SRN KS WITHIN BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH RAPIDLY COOLING
MID-LEVEL PROFILES /-20 DEG C AT 500 MB PER LATEST DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT/ WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE
1000-2500 J/KG/. LARGE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF DESCRIBED
BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL AUGMENT UPDRAFTS IN
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE BULGE LEADING TO THE RISK OF ISOLD
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
..SMITH.. 04/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36809789 37149852 37589858 38049842 38189775 38169658
37949500 37369461 36649475 36439660 36569717 36809789
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