SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162256
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-170030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS SWD INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...
VALID 162256Z - 170030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.
THROUGH 00Z...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH ANY
MATURE SUPERCELLS CROSSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM HOCKLEY AND LYNN
COUNTIES SEWD THROUGH BORDEN...HOWARD INTO STERLING COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
SYNTHESIS OF LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING WWD THROUGH THE TX S PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM LAMB AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES SEWD THROUGH DAWSON
AND MARTIN INTO STERLING COUNTIES AS OF 2245Z. SEVERAL STORMS HAVE
RAPIDLY EVOLVED INTO SUPERCELLS WHILE CROSSING THIS BOUNDARY WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS LOCATED OVER LUBBOCK...GARZA AND INTO BORDEN
COUNTIES...ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS N/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL YIELDS A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1200 J PER KG/ WITH LCL HEIGHTS
AROUND 1 KM. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH LOCALLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND RESULTANT RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT PER LBB VWP/ WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES. THIS TORNADO
THREAT IS LIKELY CONFINED A 50-70 KM CORRIDOR NE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH EWD EXTENT DUE TO
COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE HAIL PRODUCTION WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS...SOME THAT MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
..MEAD.. 04/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32930317 33040286 34690269 34870139 34789982 32829985
30970046 30880129 30910261 32170324 32930317
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment