SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162301
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-170000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO / EXTREME WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...
VALID 162301Z - 170000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER MOST OF WW
156 THRU 00Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ MAY BEGIN
TO AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF WW 156 THEREAFTER AS INCREASING
ASCENT/ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER TX PANHANDLE MOVES NWD INTO WW.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS CONFINED TO LINCOLN/ELBERT
COUNTIES E OF CO FRONT RANGE. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND LIKELY POSE
ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER S...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION OVER WRN KS HAS SURGED WWD THIS AFTN AND OVERTAKEN/MERGED
WITH NW-SE ORIENTED DRYLINE ACROSS SERN CO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
MID-LEVEL CONVECTION STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF NM S/W PIVOTING AROUND
BROADER SCALE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. AS INCREASING
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM S/W BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON DRYLINE/RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE IF/AS
ACTIVITY ORGANIZES AND MOVES FROM S-N POSING MAINLY AN ISOLD DMGG
WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT THRU THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS LOCATED OVER
NRN TX PANHANDLE /AS OF 2300Z/ WILL PROBABLY BE AIDED BY INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT...RESULTING IN EXISTING ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED
AND REINVIGORATED AS IT APPROACHES SRN PORTIONS OF WW AFTER 00Z.
..SMITH.. 04/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37000306 37630307 37660403 38880406 39100404 39130466
39540465 39570373 39980369 39990414 40500414 40500346
40420207 39100203 39140147 36970155 37000306
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