SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282243
ARZ000-MOZ000-282345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN-NRN AR AND SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282243Z - 282345Z
AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NWRN-NRN AR INTO SRN MO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM ERN OK
THROUGH NRN AR AND INTO SERN MO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS ZONE DURING THE LAST HR OR TWO...WITH A FEW STORMS DISPLAYING
PULSE LIKE INTENSIFICATION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR A SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND DEWPOINT IN THE MID 60S YIELDS
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CINH. AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOB 30-35 KT/.
HOWEVER...STRONGER MULTICELL UPDRAFT CORES MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP IN
INTENSITY AND POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
..GARNER.. 04/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 34729425 34479360 34789232 36069093 36719029 37189037
37179173 36429396 35459434 34729425
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