SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282245
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-290115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN MT...ERN WY...EXTREME WRN NEB
PANHANDLE...NERN/E-CENTRAL CO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282245Z - 290115Z
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z OVER
DISCUSSION AREA...MAIN CONCERN BEING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. POTENTIAL
IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON DIURNAL/DIABATICALLY DRIVEN BOUNDARY
LAYER PROCESSES AND SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET.
NARROW SWATH OF FAVORABLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING OVER
CORRIDOR OF HIGH PLAINS WHERE EARLIER STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER HAS
ERODED...LEADING TO ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS. BILLOW CLOUDS
FARTHER E ACROSS WRN SD AND MUCH OF NEB PANHANDLE INDICATE AREAS OF
GREATER LOW LEVEL STATIC STABILITY AND RELATED STG CINH THAT ARE
UNLIKELY TO DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AT THIS LATE STAGE. VIS IMAGERY
SHOWS SHALLOW CB ALREADY ARE EVIDENT OVER NERN WY/EXTREME SERN
MT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SSEWD TO E-CENTRAL/SERN
CO. SFC DEW POINTS OF 40S F AT THESE ELEVATIONS...BENEATH NEARLY
DRY ADIABATIC 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SELYS COMMON FROM
GCC-TOR-LIC BENEATH 35-45 KT 500 MB WINDS PER VWP/PROFILER/RUC.
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER
VALUES WHERE BUOYANT PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND EXTEND INTO
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW.
..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 38100404 38990439 40540503 41540492 42380512 42710549
43230586 44500565 45250596 45790609 45700501 45330439
43780418 42910397 41670381 40950319 39860279 38330233
38050266 38100404
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