SWODY2
SPC AC 251729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
LATITUDES...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE
U.S...MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...BUT BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN A
STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND WITHIN A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL STREAM...ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...AND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE AN INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL LIKELY NOSE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM
AND MOIST. THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
...TEXAS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION TODAY WILL ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...COINCIDENT WITH CONTINUED WEAK MID-LEVEL
COOLING. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
...AND INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE A WEAK MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE
ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000
J/KG...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DEW POINT SPREADS...THE ENVIRONMENT
CERTAINLY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS STILL
UNCLEAR/UNCERTAIN. IT MAY BE THAT DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS. IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. BUT...POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LARGE STORM CLUSTER STILL APPEARS LOW AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 05/25/2009
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