Monday, May 25, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

ACUS11 KWNS 251732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251732
ILZ000-MOZ000-251900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251732Z - 251900Z

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL...IN
ADDITION TO A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

REMNANT TROPICAL-LIKE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST
AR/SOUTHWEST MO BORDER AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW HAVE WEAKENED SOME FROM
YESTERDAY...AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTURE WITH MID TO UPPER
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
ROTATION INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO. SUCH
A THREAT MAY BE A BIT ENHANCED ALONG A WSW-ENE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE I-44/I-70
CORRIDORS...WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODESTLY ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALREADY EXHIBITED AT LEAST WEAK/BROAD
LOW LEVEL ROTATION SINCE LATE MORNING. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE PERCEIVED RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 36669069 36849192 38119234 39329046 39348777 37908839
36669069

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