Sunday, June 7, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0973

ACUS11 KWNS 071932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071931
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071931Z - 072030Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A HOUR OR SO AS A
SHORT-LINE SEGMENT ALONG THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE BORDER
EVOLVES EWD. WITH SUBSTANTIAL WANING OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
DOWNSTREAM...OVERALL TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ATTM
AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THUS...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

JUST N OF WW 341...A SHORT/N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT WAS LOCATED
INVOF THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE BORDER AS OF 1930Z. TWO OF THE
CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE HAVE A REPORTED HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED ATTM GIVEN AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS REDEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
SWRN NEB PANHANDLE. TIME-SERIES TRENDS AT SNY DEPICT FALLING
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED. THIS WILL HELP MINIMIZE
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION AMIDST ALREADY MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT /AS SAMPLED BY 18Z DNR AND LBF
RAOBS/ SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
EWD AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..GRAMS.. 06/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40980398 41000451 41210445 41710403 41910342 41940269
41830227 41410205 40980211 40980398

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