SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071936
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-072130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO PARTS OF SE NEB/SW IA/NW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071936Z - 072130Z
A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z.
BENEATH THE CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY
INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A WEAK WAVE ALONG STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A NORTH-SOUTH UPSTREAM CLOUD BAND EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF
MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT SUPPRESSIVE OF INHIBITION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT... COUPLED WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING...TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS EARLY AS
21-22Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO EXIST NEAR/WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF TOPEKA...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...
AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AS 850 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK
TO SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 30+ KT...AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
..KERR.. 06/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40119681 40749658 41409519 40889453 39949444 39449474
38579519 38399584 38409642 38569669 39199687 40119681
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