SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021725
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-021830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MT...WY...ND...SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021725Z - 021830Z
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION.
LIFT WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NWRN WY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ABOVE
AREAS. ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE SUPPORT IS CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY
WEAK POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS TO THE BLACK HILLS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENT REGIONS WILL BOOST CAPE VALUES AND
CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED STORM UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. MODEST WLY FLOW OF
25-30KT AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...COMBINED WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CELLS WITH THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND EVENTS.
..CARBIN.. 07/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
LAT...LON 46820710 47310588 46960414 45890246 44680196 43730266
43210372 43200494 43210557 43870630 44640691 45490731
46820710
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