SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161858
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-162030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / SWRN MO / NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161858Z - 162030Z
THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND/HAIL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED TODAY OWING TO EFFECTS OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ONGOING STORMS. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS..RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA ALL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NEAR SZL SWWD TO E OF CNU AND S OF ICT.
THE NRN EXTENSION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN LINKS TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH TRAILS SEWD INTO SERN MO /S OF STL/.
FARTHER S...ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD CANOPY HAVE
ESTABLISHED A POCKET OF COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER NERN OK INTO NRN
AR. AS A RESULT A NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION IS PRESENT FROM NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER NEWD INTO
SWRN MO WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH INFLUENCE OF
MCV OVER NWRN MO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS
FROM NEAR OR JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY-STATIONARY FRONT
INTERSECTION N OF SZL SWWD INTO FAR SERN KS /E OF CNU/. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WRN/NWRN EDGE OF NARROW WARM SECTOR
/DELINEATED ABOVE/ WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER
PRIMARILY SWRN MO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE MODESTLY STRONG /35-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR A POSSIBLY WW ISSUANCE IS THE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD SUSTAIN MORE INTENSE STORMS.
..MEAD.. 07/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37059628 37589573 38249464 39149383 38859285 38139210
37389215 37139292 36789381 36649535 36779612 37059628
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