Thursday, July 16, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1580

ACUS11 KWNS 161920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161919
ARZ000-OKZ000-162015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK / SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161919Z - 162015Z

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DMGG MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SWRN AR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN MAY ARISE IF TSTMS BECOME
SURFACE-BASED OVER PARTS OF SERN OK. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN TSTMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF AR
GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHEREAS FURTHER
W...MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED RESULTING IN TSTMS
OVER PARTS OF ERN OK DURING THE PAST HOUR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WHETHER CONVECTION OVER ERN OK WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED AHEAD OF
SEEMINGLY WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT MOVING EWD ACROSS OK. A HOT/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S RESIDES
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NRN TX
NEWD INTO SWRN AR. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG--SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.

20-30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWP DATA WILL LIKELY
SERVE TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE
POSSIBLY LEADS TO A CONSOLIDATION OF ONE OR MORE W-E MOVING
CLUSTERS.

..SMITH.. 07/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 33889401 34179523 34299662 34509721 34699717 34809674
35019533 35209492 35389410 35319346 35029288 34449206
33909158 33459153 33179167 33069189 33089217 33229262
33709347 33889401

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