SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191906
TXZ000-192000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191906Z - 192000Z
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF
N-CNTRL TX. STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL BE
FORTHCOMING IN THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE. A WW IS POSSIBLE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN A
STEADY BUILDUP IN THE CU FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX...LEADING
TO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER DENTON AND MCKINNEY COUNTIES. THE AIRMASS
HAS BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA
WHEN MODIFYING THE FWD 12Z RAOB FOR LOWER 90S TEMPS WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS--ESSENTIALLY NEGATING AND REMOVING THE PRIOR EXISTING CAP.
CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL INCREASE SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER. WEAK BUT
STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH 30 KT 6KM AGL FLOW PER
PRC PROFILER SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. 12Z 4KM
MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR HAS DEPICTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION RATHER WELL
AND SHOWS A SWD MOVING STRONG/SEVERE STORM CLUSTER. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS IF STORM MERGING AND COLD
POOL CONSOLIDATION OCCURS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
..SMITH.. 07/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31579741 32939828 33319766 33559725 33339651 33189618
31709495 31179608 31579741
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