SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191908
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-192115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191908Z - 192115Z
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND NERN NM MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM NERN NM THROUGH
SERN CO AND WRN TX WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS AREA REMAINS ON WRN FRINGE OF 25-35 KT NWLY
MID-UPPER FLOW BENEATH SLY NEAR SURFACE WINDS RESULTING IN 30-40 KT
BULK SHEAR THAT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SERN CO AND NERN NM. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO A
WARM EML /14-16C/ AT 700 MB THAT IS ADVECTING EWD INTO THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. MODIFIED RUC PFCS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WOULD NEED TO WARM AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 90S FOR SURFACE BASED
UPDRAFTS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THREAT SUGGEST ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
..DIAL.. 07/19/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35030467 37380425 38400396 38280285 35510285 35030467
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