SWODY3
SPC AC 020729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...
...MIDWEST AND OH/TN/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEYS...
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AS BRUNT OF UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES.
UNCERTAIN DAY 2 CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS INHERENTLY LIMIT CONFIDENCE OF
DETAILS INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER OVERALL SCENARIO/REASONABLE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO WARRANT A BROAD CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THE REGION. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED TSTMS /PERHAPS SOME
STRONG/ WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. AIDED
BY A POTENTIAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...PER 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE...THE REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND/OR PERIPHERAL STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY. PRESUMING A RELATIVELY
UNPERTURBED/NON-CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST/UPPER OH VALLEY IN VICINITY OF
THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST SURFACE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...
A SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED/LESSER CONFIDENCE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES VICINITY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE
TO MORE MODEST INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD ULTIMATELY
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
...ORE...
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY FALL OVER ORE ON TUESDAY AS PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER.. 08/02/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment