SWOD48
SPC AC 020856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN STATES...WHILE LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WHILE SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AND/OR MODEST
POTENTIAL PRECLUDES DELINEATION OF ANY 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES.
DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE ALONG THIS FRONTAL
ZONE...THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WOULD AGAIN FAVOR A BROAD CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY FROM THE CAROLINAS/VA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DAY 5/THURSDAY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
PERHAPS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AS THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR DAYS 6/7 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES SHOULD RESULT IN THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
..GUYER.. 08/02/2009
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