SWODY2
SPC AC 161730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS OVER THE SWRN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL STAY
WELL REMOVED FROM BELT OF STRONGER WLYS AND AS A RESULT WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
...SERN STATES...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE BROAD WEAKLY
CAPPED MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SERN STATES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT UPPER LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
SWD BUT REMAIN IN VICINITY OF ERN TX AND LA. NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL
BACK TO ESELY OVER THE SERN STATES BENEATH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS
WEAK SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE AND SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL VEERING.
...SWRN STATES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SWD INTO AZ. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD POTENTIALLY SLOW OR LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL.
..DIAL.. 09/16/2009
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