SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161713
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-161915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161713Z - 161915Z
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...AND WIND
DAMAGE...MAY MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL. ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AS THE PARENT CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A SUBTROPICAL/MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF AND ADJACENT GULF COAST
STATES...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW/POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK. NONETHELESS...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING /LOWER 80S F/ AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F
DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH MODESTLY BACKED /SOUTHEASTERLY/ LOW LEVEL
FLOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL WITH 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND
100 MS/S2...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR
WIND DAMAGE.
..GUYER.. 09/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 33328553 31968484 30508643 31038808 33428771 33328553
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