SWODY2
SPC AC 300600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS INCLUDING MO/AR AND ADJACENT AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW -- CENTERED INVOF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
-- IS PROGGED TO LINGER/MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE PRIMARY
FEATURE ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE A
SECOND TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN WITH TIME...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION
THROUGH 02/12Z.
AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
OUT OF SERN SD/NERN NEB AND INTO IA...WHILE A STRONG/TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
LATE. THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...LOWER MO VALLEY SWD INTO NERN TX/NRN LA AND THE MID MS VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...IN AN ARC FROM THE NRN PLAINS SSEWD ACROSS THE MID MO
VALLEY...AND THEN SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO OK/N TX
INVOF THE SURGING COLD FRONT. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER BACK
NWD...WHICH DESPITE ONGOING CLOUDS/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ALLOW MODEST WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION INTO ERN KS/MO.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A RATHER INTENSE
SQUALL LINE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS/MO SWWD INTO OK.
THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD/SEWD...ACROSS
MO/ERN OK/AR/THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO EARLY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE MID MO VALLEY REGION STRENGTHENS...A
STRONG /ROUGHLY 80 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOSING ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION -- WITH SOME BOWING/COMPLEX STRUCTURES
EXPECTED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS -- EXPECT STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A SLOW
DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL COULD SPREAD E OF THE MS VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
S AS THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH 02/12Z.
..GOSS.. 09/30/2009
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