SWODY3
SPC AC 300729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND APPROACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE. THIS FRONT SHOULD AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
-- LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY
REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS REGION. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MAKE STEADY EWD/SEWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS OCCURS
DESPITE ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY -- AIDED BY
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION APPEARS ATTM TO SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS --
PARTICULARLY WITH STRONGER FORCING ALOFT TO REMAIN WELL N OF THIS
REGION. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS
FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 09/30/2009
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