Saturday, September 26, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260726
SWODY3
SPC AC 260724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY...AS A DEEP...CLOSED LOW AND
ATTENDANT LONGWAVE TROUGH SPREAD EAST INTO THE ERN STATES AND THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE NERN STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY.
FURTHER W...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND SWD AS IT
APPROACHES THE U.S. WEST COAST AND MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE GREAT LAKES
CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY EWD...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF THE ERN SEABOARD TO NRN
FL BY THE END OF DAY 3.

...PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG/
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED
WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS PRECLUDES
THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 09/26/2009

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