SWOD48
SPC AC 260900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
BECOMES CUT-OFF OVER THE NERN STATES INTO QUEBEC/ERN CANADA FROM DAY
4 TO MUCH OF DAY 7 /TUE SEP 29-FRI OCT 02/. DESPITE THIS
AGREEMENT...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN DIFFERENT UPSTREAM WITH THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL STATES FROM DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 6 /WED SEP 30-THU OCT 01/.
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SUBSEQUENT LOCATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY.
..PETERS.. 09/26/2009
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