SWODY1
SPC AC 271944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN ATLC CST...
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESO-LOW OVER SWRN GA WITH A MARINE
FRONT EXTENDING NE TO MIDWAY BETWEEN BRUNSWICK AND SAVANNAH GA THEN
TO 30-60 MILES SSE OF KCHS-KILM RESPECTIVELY. A WEDGE
FRONT...MARKING RAIN-COOLED AIR...EXTENDED FROM THE WRN CSTL PLAINS
OF NC INTO CNTRL GA. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW WAS LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER
NRN MS...REFLECTING THE STRONG UPR WAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH.
PRESSURE FALL AXIS OVER UPSTATE SC AND THE PIEDMONT SUGGESTS THAT AS
THE MID-SOUTH DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OH VLY TONIGHT...THE MARINE
FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE NWD PROGRESS INTO AT LEAST THE ERN CSTL
PLAINS OF SC/NC OVERNIGHT. INFLUX OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
PWAT AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT
SHOWERS/WDLY SCTD TSTMS AS THE SRN PORTIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE GRAZES THE REGION.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE
CST OVERNIGHT...AND DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION...AND THUS THE EXTENSION OF THE LOW TORNADO/WIND
PROBABILITIES NEWD INTO CSTL NC/SC. WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..RACY.. 10/27/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009/
...FL PANHANDLE INTO NW FL/SRN GA...
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO OH VALLEY TONIGHT...AS A
150-175 KT HIGH LEVEL JET MAX CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY A LARGE AND DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ARKLATEX
TROUGH WAS BRUSHING THE FL REGION AND AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR PANAMA CITY FL AT 15Z...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ENEWD ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER.
AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT LIFT SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO...REFERENCE WW 776 AND MCD 2141. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING AND
NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF CURRENT WW...CONVERGENCE NEAR WARM
FRONT AND DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT A SMALL TORNADO THREAT
INTO SERN GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION WILL DECREASE
BY DARK AS THE PRIMARY FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND
SPREADS WEAK SUBSIDENCE INTO THE REGION.
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