SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271943
SCZ000-GAZ000-272145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN GA AND INTO COASTAL SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271943Z - 272145Z
VERY LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO APPEARS TO
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW APPEARS
UNLIKELY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SRN GA OFF THE SERN GA COAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS...LOW-LEVEL SELYS --
PARTICULARLY NEAR AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SHEAR PROFILES WHICH FAVOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH ANY
STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED INLAND
UPDRAFTS REMAINS LOW...GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS BOTH QUITE
LIMITED...AND CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS. WITH LITTLE PROSPECTS FOR
APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE RAPID
APPROACH OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING TIME...OVERALL THREAT FOR STRONG
CELLULAR CONVECTION -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
LOW. GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...AS
ROTATING STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE/GULF
STREAM-INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE. ATTM
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT APPEARS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SHORT-TERM
WATCH CONSIDERATIONS.
..GOSS.. 10/27/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...
LAT...LON 31508115 31828165 32648080 33157991 33137889 32087998
31508115
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