Tuesday, October 20, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201253
SWODY1
SPC AC 201252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID LVL TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY WILL DEEPEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER AZ TODAY...BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO CNTRL NM BY 12Z
WED. AS A RESULT...90-120 M HEIGHT FALLS AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD ERN AZ/WRN AZ TODAY...AND ERN NM/W TX
EARLY WED.

AT LWR LVLS...LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER SW KS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SW
INTO ERN NM BY WED MORNING AS ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NRN
PLNS/UPR MS VLY STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE S/SEWD. S OF
THE LOW...LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER FAR ERN NM AND
THE NW TX PANHANDLE...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AZ TROUGH.

...AZ/NM...
AS TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON...AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING
ERN AZ AND NM TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH PW GENERALLY AOB
0.75 INCH. BUT...COMBINATION OF SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH
POCKETS OF SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTN. SCTD TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
BEGINNING AROUND NOON...AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

WIND PROFILES...ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPR LVLS...WILL SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHEN TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THESE MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SE AZ
INTO S CNTRL/CNTRL NM. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS
AND LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLD
SVR WIND/HAIL EWD ACROSS NM INTO FAR W TX. LIMITED CAPE PRECLUDES
HIGHER WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

...SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS...
A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS /WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S/ WILL
CONTINUE TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HI PLNS TODAY IN
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH. SIMILAR TO MON...
HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING WILL ERODE CIN NOW PRESENT OVER
REGION TO SUPPORT ISOLD/SCTD STORMS BY MID/LATE AFTN ALONG LEE
TROUGH...WHERE SBCAPE WILL BE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THE STRONGER MID/HI LVL FLOW/SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AZ UPR TROUGH
WILL REMAIN W OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. STRENGTHENING... NOCTURNAL LLJ
AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND LARGER SCALE ORGANIZATION TONIGHT FROM ERN NM/WRN
TX NEWD INTO WRN KS/S-CNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/20/2009

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