SWOD48
SPC AC 200853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN LONGER-WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. MUCH FARTHER INTO THE PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE ERN U.S. BY LATE DAY 5 /SUN OCT 25/...AFTER
WHICH LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT
VACATING THE ATLANTIC COAST -- I.E. DAYS 4-5...MINIMAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH ANY THREAT LIKELY LIMITED TO A GREAT
DEGREE BY AN EXPECTED LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...A THREAT
AREA -- REPRESENTING 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY -- IS NOT WARRANTED.
..GOSS.. 10/20/2009
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