SWODY2
SPC AC 210544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW INVOF KS EARLY PROGGED TO
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING ENEWD INTO IA/MO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE MID MO VALLEY
LATE...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES OK/TX/AR THROUGH THE
DAY...AND THEN REACHES THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION BY 23/12Z.
...S CENTRAL U.S. CENTERED ON THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
S CENTRAL CONUS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DESPITE A MOIST WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION...DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MODEST DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION -- AT LEAST PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE RICK.
THOUGH THIS LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL...AMPLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS.
THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TO
COVER LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO. THE LIMITED THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING E OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS AND PERHAPS PARTS
OF AL LATE.
..GOSS.. 10/21/2009
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